Supplementary material to “Challenges and Opportunities in the Atmospheric Sciences and Climate”

Robert J. Serafin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.; Walter F. Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colo.; Peter R. Leavitt, Weather Information, Inc. Newton, Mass.; Antonio J. Busalacchi Jr., University of Maryland, College Park; Chris Elfring and Claudia Mengelt, National Academies, Washington, D.C., E-mail: cmengelt@nas.edu

Citation:
Serafin, R.J., W. F. Dabberdt, P. R. Leavitt, A. J. Busalacchi Jr., C. Elfring and C. Mengelt (2007), Challenges and Opportunities in the Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(16), 180. [Full Article (pdf)]

What constitutes an effective vision for a national weather enterprise for the next one or two decades? Can today’s barriers to improving subseasonal prediction of weather and climate be identified and removed? What are the ethical considerations surrounding possible geoengineering approaches to mitigating climate change? What is the state of knowledge concerning the distribution, sources, and sinks of atmospheric aerosols and how best to treat aerosols in weather and climate models? These are some of the many questions raised during a recent strategic planning retreat of the National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC). Participants were asked to provide the BASC with their view of the major challenges facing the atmospheric sciences during the 2-day retreat, 8–9 August 2006, in Woods Hole, Mass.

The National Academies—the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine—are chartered by the U.S. Congress to provide expert advice to the government in all areas of science and technology. This service is provided through studies conducted by committees overseen by various boards of the National Research Council (NRC), an arm of the Academies. Broadly stated, the mission of BASC (http://www.dels.nas.edu/basc/) is to provide advice and promote excellence in the atmospheric sciences and related fields. Every 3 years, BASC convenes a strategic planning workshop to anticipate current and future issues and priorities that might benefit from the Board’s attention. Participants in these planning workshops include BASC members as well as representatives from the broader scientific community, industry, and federal agencies. Many of the issues and challenges identified become the focus of future BASC studies.

The previous retreat, in the summer of 2003, resulted in 22 issues, many of which were discussed and addressed during subsequent BASC forums, and some of which led to formal BASC studies [e.g., NRC, 2005, 2006a, 2006b, 2007]. During the 2006 planning retreat, participants identified 21 specific topics (see Table 1) organized according to seven themes. Detailed descriptions of the specific topics can be found on the BASC Web site.

The breadth of the issues discussed is illustrated by briefly summarizing four diverse topics from the 2006 workshop: the national weather enterprise, extreme events at the weather-climate interface, geoengineering, and implications of establishing public-private data enterprises.

The nation’s weather enterprise has created major advances in weather research and technology that have led to dramatic improvements in weather-related products and services. The resulting high quality and accuracy of weather forecasting sometimes convey the impression that there is little leftto be done. Yet, there are many weather phenomena about which there is insufficient knowledge to enable accurate forecasting. These include quantitative precipitation and hurricane intensity predictions. There is also only embryonic knowledge about the fundamental predictability of many mesoscale processes. These issues are of great importance to the nation’s economy and public safety. In order to make quantum improvements in understanding mesoscale processes, numerical simulation, observational technologies, and forecasting skill, a renewed and well-coordinated national effort in basic and applied weather research is needed.

Examples of issues at the interface of weather and climate are the possible changes in the frequency, intensity, or spatial distribution of landfalling hurricanes and the subsequent implications that might ensue for communities along the U.S. southeastern and Gulf coasts. Inland communities are also vulnerable to the heavy precipitation frequently associated with tropical storms. A number of studies [Knutson et al., 1998; Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005] have focused on the relationship between hurricane activity and natural and anthropogenic climate change, yet a clear consensus is lacking. Theoretical and modeling work over the past two decades suggests that warming of the tropical oceans would cause a modest increase in the intensity but not necessarily the frequency of hurricanes. Some recent publications [Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005] suggest that hurricanes have indeed become more intense over the past few decades, in concert with the observed warming of the tropical oceans. Although ocean surface temperature exerts an important control on hurricane activity, other environmental factors, such as humidity and wind shear, are also known to play a role. These are modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation and other regional climate phenomena, leading to large interannual, regional fluctuations in hurricane activity. Natural variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on multidecadal timescales is also thought to regulate hurricane activity. A fuller understanding of long-term hurricane trends and variability with regard to frequency, tracks, and intensity would help decision makers better plan future response and mitigation actions. Some of the key issues and questions are:

What is known about past interannual and multidecadal trends in hurricane frequency, intensity, duration, tracks, and precipitation and associated causal factors?
How does climate change affect factors critical to the evolution of hurricane genesis and intensification?
What are the research priorities needed to address critical gaps in understanding the relationship between hurricanes and climate change?

The issue of geoengineering, relevant to the broader geosciences community, as a climate change mitigation option was also discussed. This topic is highly multidisciplinary and often controversial, and would involve many other boards at the National Academies. Many of these geoengineering options have generated research efforts in various disciplines and include mitigating severe weather, reducing excess greenhouse gases, and limiting global warming. Before such geoengineering options can be presented to policy makers as valid solutions, potential voluntary and involuntary consequences must be evaluated. Priorities should also be set in supporting research on geoengineering options with the most promise. In addition, feasibility and ethical questions need to be addressed before any actions could move to an operational stage.

Increasingly, private companies are establishing weather observation networks to collect atmospheric, land, and water data for their own applications or to sell to end users and value-added resellers. The question arises whether and how these data sets can best be used for the public good. For example,

Can the data from these disparate networks be fed into a national system, perhaps led and governed by the federal government or a public-private enterprise to protect lives and property and to promote the economic well-being of the nation?
What are the resulting benefits and potential cost savings?
In the process, a wide range of difficult questions and challenges must be addressed:
- What types of data networks might be established by nongovernment entities?
- What are the cost-benefits, and is there a solid business case?
- What is the business model for a public-private enterprise?
- What communications and other types of architectures are needed?
- What new policies, if any, might be needed concerning data sharing?
- What is the role of the federal government?
- How might the enterprise be governed?
- How would metadata and quality control/quality assurance standards be established and monitored?
- Is there a place for “less-than-standard” quality data?

These questions and issues are becoming more relevant and timely as government acquires more data from networks established, operated, and owned by commercial entities.

These topics illustrate the diversity of the important and interesting challenges facing the atmospheric science and climate community. BASC will use this information as key input in developing its future plans in collaboration with sponsors and the science and policy communities. BASC invites all readers with questions or suggestions for activities, or with interest in serving on the board, to send e-mail to: basc@nas.edu.

References

Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686.
Knutson, T. R., R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara (1998), Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO₂-warmed climate, Science, 279, 1019.
National Research Council (2005), Improving the Scientific Foundation for Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Simulations: Report of a Workshop, Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council (2006a), Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts, Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council (2006b), Understanding and Responding to Multiple Environmental Stresses: Report of a Workshop, Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council (2007), Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned, Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, D.C., in press.
Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang (2005), Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment, Science, 309, 1846.

Table 1. Issues Identified at the BASC Strategic Planning Retreat

Issue	Description
Weather enterprise:	advancing the national weather enterprise understanding and improving forecasts of rapid changes in hurricane intensity private data for the weather enterprise: options and issues?
Weather-climate interface:	a national integrated drought information system extreme events at the weather-climate interface hurricane intensity and frequency in the current and changing climate infrastructure for weather and climate
Climate change science:	challenges in regional-scale climate modeling an integrated environmental monitoring system: research to operations assimilating ecological, biological, and geosciences process studies and other data sources into climate models intersection of the carbon and water cycles
Atmospheric processes:	aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and storms air quality and combustion of biofuels
Urban studies:	changing nature of the urban environment: impacts of population growth and climate change
Socioeconomic issues:	regional impacts and resiliency to weather and climate variations and extremes integrated economic analysis of climate change mitigation of climate change: geoengineering
General atmospheric science policy questions:	needs and priorities for ground-based atmospheric measurements ownership of data, patenting, and intellectual property: consequences of the Bayh-Dole act and implications for atmospheric sciences public education, and weather and climate literacy protecting the people pipeline: education and training in support of the weather and climate enterprise